Australia is not prepared to defend itself, according to a major paper released today by the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) and Strategic Analysis Australia.
In what will be the first of six research papers, the IPA, in collaboration with Peter Jennings and Strategic Analysis Australia, has released National Security and Australia’s Northern Defence. The paper makes several recommendations, including;
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By 2028, expanding the US Marine Corps rotational presence in northern Australia to around 16,000 to work with the Australian Army’s warfare capability;
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Acquiring the B-21 Raider stealth bomber to quickly strengthen deterrence in the 2020s and manage the risk of delays in the AUKUS submarine;
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Bring Japan into AUKUS and work towards a closer defence relationship with India;
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Establish a stronger ADF presence and supporting infrastructure in northern Australia, as well as the Cocos and Christmas Islands and Norfolk Island; and
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Build a Pacific Response Force with our Pacific Island neighbours.
“Australia is facing its most challenging security environment since the Second World War, yet the country is dramatically underprepared for the possibility of conflict in the Indo-Pacific,” said the IPA’s Executive Director Scott Hargreaves. “For well over a decade, governments of all persuasions have struggled to translate changing regional geo-political considerations and rising security concerns into decisions and action. It is time for a reboot, one built on a sense of urgency, that can be delivered quickly.”
Over the coming months, the IPA and Strategic Analysis Australia say they will publish research that contains concrete and practical recommendations achievable in the next term of government. The collaboration between the two think tanks will deliver a detailed blueprint for future governments on how to deter a major conflict in our region and how to defend Australia’s national sovereignty if deterrence fails.
“Serious defence planners all recognise that Australia no longer has the luxury of a ten-year window for planning and action,” said Jennings. “Whichever party forms the next government in 2025, our worsening strategic outlook means that it is timely to take a fresh look at Australia’s defence needs and the difficult decisions that future government will face on strategy, budgets, alliances and partners, on understanding the threats we face and how we position our forces to meet them.”
“If there is a conflict over Taiwan, we think it highly unlikely that war can be localised to the island of Taiwan and the straits which separate it from the mainland,” he added. “A significant war would draw in the US and neighbouring states Japan and the Philippines. Australia will be involved to some degree, however reluctantly.”
You can read the research paper here.
