UNSW Business School researchers say panic buying can spread quickly in Australia because consumers respond to uncertainty, price expectations and each other’s behaviour, rather than to confirmed shortages.
The latest commentary follows renewed queues and demand spikes at petrol stations as tensions in the Middle East raise concerns about global fuel supply chains. UNSW marketing professor Nitika Garg said fear and uncertainty tend to trigger risk-avoidant decisions, including buying early or stocking up.
UNSW economist Timothy Neal said panic buying is often predictable, driven by both expectations of scarcity and expectations of price rises. In fuel markets, he said, price signals can be especially powerful because changes are immediate and visible at the pump.
Neal also pointed to Australia’s exposure to international supply disruptions. He said the country’s position at the end of a long supply chain—where refined fuel comes from Asia, and Asian refiners rely on crude oil shipments from the Middle East—makes local consumers more likely to connect global events with potential impacts at home.
The UNSW researchers linked the speed of behaviour changes to information flows and social cues. Garg said once people observe others filling up—either in person or through online posts—fear of missing out can amplify the response. Neal added that media and social media can shape how people interpret events and translate them into consumer action.
The analysis draws on Neal’s earlier research with Michael Keane examining Google search behaviour across 54 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, including spikes in searches such as “panic buying” and “toilet paper”. That work, published in the Journal of Econometrics in January 2021, found Australia stood out for the speed and intensity with which concern escalated in early March 2020.
On whether panic buying can be prevented, Garg said early and clear government communication that addresses short-term supply conditions can reduce fear. She also argued for monitoring fuel pricing to avoid perceptions of price gouging that could worsen public anxiety.
Neal said the dynamic is hard to contain once it begins, because panic buying can be rational if consumers believe others will behave the same way. He said other people’s purchasing decisions alone can trigger shortages, even among those who are not personally worried.
Both researchers warned that panic buying can deepen disruptions that consumers are trying to avoid, and that Australia’s experience during COVID-19 may have heightened sensitivity to perceived shortages. Neal said that while not every concern is unfounded, prolonged global instability affecting fuel can flow through to transport and freight costs, and ultimately to the price of everyday goods.
