Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, standing alongside the Federal Attorney General, Mark Dreyfus and Mike Burgess, Director-General of Security and head of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) announced today that Australia’s National Terrorism Alert Level would be raised from ‘possible’ to ‘probable’ in response to the international and national security environment, as recommended by the National Threat Assessment Centre.
Mike Burgess stated in the announcement, “Australia’s security environment is degrading. Is more volatile and more unpredictable. You’ve heard me say many times that espionage and foreign interference are our principal security concerns. ASIO’s intelligence suggests this is no longer accurate.”
“ASIO anticipates an increase in politically motivated violence, including terrorism across all ideological spectrums. Attacks are likely to occur with little or no warning and will be difficult to detect. An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, particularly in southern Lebanon, would inflict further strain, aggravating tensions and potentially fueling grievances, as you’d expect. ASIO keeps a national threat level under constant review.”
In 2022 we lowered the threat level. We stand by that decision…A threat level of probable means we assess there is a greater than 50% chance of an offshore attack or planning in the next 12 months. It does not mean that we have intelligence about a current attack planning or an expectation of an imminent attack.”
“In the last four months, there have been eight attacks or disruptions that have either involved alleged terrorism or have investigated as potential acts of terrorism. I can’t comment on these cases in detail, but will note they all appear to underscore four characteristics of the current counter terrorism landscape.”
“First, the threat of lone actors, the most likely terrorist act attack involves an individual or small group using rudimentary weapons such as knives, improvised explosives or a gun. Second, the acceleration of radicalization. Individuals are moving to violence with little or no warning and little or no planning. Acts of violence can be almost spontaneous or purely reactive. Third, a resurgence in the number of minors embracing violent extremism. In recent cases, the oldest perpetrator was 21 and the youngest was 14. Extremist ideologies, conspiracies, misinformation are flourishing in the online ecosystem, and young Australians are particularly vulnerable. Finally, the diverse drivers of extremism. When we raise the threat level, individuals were often being radicalized by sustained exposure to a particular extremist ideology or influenced by an authority figure. Now, individuals are being motivated by diversity of grievances and personal narratives. In some cases I refer to the alleged perpetrators appear to be motivated by extreme religious beliefs in others, nationalist and racist beliefs. These factors make ASIOs job more difficult.”
The threats are becoming harder to predict and identify. The drivers of radicalization, grievance, extremism are growing and interacting in ways we’ve not seen before, creating a security environment that’s very different to the one that persisted when we last raised the threat level. The challenge is exacerbated by the internet and social media as the primary platform for radicalization and the use of encryption by every single one of our investigative subjects. It’s important to put this in context, though the threats I’m describing are significant but not insurmountable. Probable does not mean inevitable. Australians should be aware but not afraid. If you believe a person you know is going down a dark extremist path, please talk to someone or call the National Security hotline on 1800 123, 400
Since 2014 together, we have successfully disrupted 24 attacks. The organization I lead will continue to do its job that we doing for the last 75 years, to protect Australia and Australians from threats to their security.” concluded Burgess.
To report suspicious activity or behaviour visit: Report suspicious behaviour (nationalsecurity.gov.au)
